137
FXUS65 KPSR 032041
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
141 PM MST Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above normal temperatures will persist today before warming
  closer to 10 degrees above normal over the weekend and early
  next week as high pressure builds over the region.

- Some gusty northerly winds will linger along the Lower Colorado River
  Valley through this afternoon.

- There is a chance of a few showers and storms Sunday and Monday
  across the eastern Arizona high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Latest water vapor satellite imagery and objective analysis
depict a potent upper-level shortwave trough traversing the
northern Plains while upper-level ridging is encroaching into the
Pacific Northwest. This pattern configuration is leading to a
strong surface high pressure across the Great Basin Region and
thus strong northerly winds along the Lower Colorado River Valley
area, where gusts in excess of 35-50 mph along with localized
dust channels were observed earlier this morning. The overall
winds will gradually diminish through the rest of the afternoon as
the pressure gradient relaxes. Afternoon high temperatures will
top out in the mid to upper 80s across the lower deserts, which
will be about 3-6 degrees above normal for early April.

Heading into the weekend, as the overall ridge axis sets up along
the interior western CONUS and upper-level height fields rise in
response, temperatures will be on warming trend. Afternoon highs
on Saturday will generally top out near 90 degrees before warming
even further into the middle 90s for Sunday. Undercutting the
ridge will be a weak shortwave trough moving in from the
subtropical Pacific on Sunday while at the same time, easterly
low-level flow will cause an increase in moisture across the
eastern third of AZ with model guidance indicating PWATs rising to
200% of normal. This will likely be enough to spark some showers
and isolated storms across the eastern third of AZ Sunday
afternoon/evening, mainly across the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. However, some isolated convection cannot be ruled out
across eastern Gila County, where NBM PoPs range between 10-20%.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
Moisture introduced into the region Sunday will linger through
Monday as PWATs will continue to remain near 200% of normal. Thus,
there will likely be another round of afternoon convection,
focused mainly across far eastern AZ. Otherwise, with upper-level
ridging remaining situated over the region, temperatures through
the middle of the week will remain steady state with readings
generally in the 90s across the lower deserts. By late next week,
models are hinting at another troughing feature approaching the
region, which will likely cause a cooling trend with temperatures
retreating into the 80s for afternoon highs.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1755Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Only minor aviation weather concerns will exist through the TAF
period under increasing high clouds later this afternoon. Winds
will generally follow their familiar diurnal patterns but with a
more northerly component than what is typical. Winds should switch
out of a NE`rly direction earlier than usual this evening, with
moderate confidence in gusts to around 20 kts for a period
overnight at KSDL and KDVT. Due to local terrain affects, KPHX may
switch around to the southwest for a period Saturday morning
before mixing occurs mid morning. Once mixing commences, a period
with E/NE`rly gusts into the teens is expected to develop across
the terminals and then subside by Saturday afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The main aviation concern will continue to be gusty northerly
winds into the afternoon. Gusts upwards of 30-50 kts have been
observed at KBLH for a few hours this morning and will continue
for the next couple hours, with a few localized channels of
blowing dust across the area. At KIPL, peak gusts out of the N/NNE
between 20-25 kt will be more common. Confidence in visibility
reductions is still too low to include in the TAF due to the
localized nature of the blowing dust channels, but it cannot be
ruled out until gusts begin to relax this afternoon. Winds will
then back out of the northwest this evening. FEW-SCT high clouds
will prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally dry weather and above normal temperatures will persist
during the next several days. Afternoon MinRHs will fall to near
10% through Saturday before increasing slightly on Sunday and
Monday as moisture increases. The increase in moisture will result
in some shower and thunderstorm chances, mainly confined to the
eastern third of AZ. Some gusty northerly winds will linger
through this afternoon along the vicinity of the Lower Colorado
River Valley, resulting in some elevated fire weather concerns.
Lighter winds are expected on Saturday before easterly winds
increase Sunday morning, particularly across the higher terrain
areas of south-central AZ. Lighter winds return for early next
week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lojero
LONG TERM...Lojero/Ryan
AVIATION...Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero