000
FXUS65 KPSR 031757
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1057 AM MST Fri Apr 3 2026

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above normal temperatures will persist through today
  before readings warm again this weekend returning to around 10
  degrees above normal.

- Increasingly gusty north winds will impact locations through the
  lower Colorado River valley this morning with localized blowing
  dust possible.

- There is a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms early next
  week across the eastern Arizona high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...

Mid-level water vapor imagery shows weak troughing across the
Desert SW with quasi linear flow across the region, additionally,
ridging can be seen building in the Eastern Pacific. Even with
broad troughing over much of Western CONUS our CWA is still under
slightly positive H5 height anomalies with heights expecting to be
near 574- 577 dam today and increasing to 576-579 dam by tomorrow
afternoon. This will lead to temperatures for today to be in the
upper 80s across the lower deserts and in the upper 70s in the
higher terrain areas. For Saturday, as heights aloft increase,
afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the
lower deserts and in the upper 70s in the higher terrain areas,
with some localized areas over 80F. The aforementioned ridging in
the Eastern Pacific will lead to a tightening in the pressure
gradient causing northerly breezy to windy conditions along the
Colorado River Valley. Current model guidance suggests peak winds
at the surface to be near 35-45 mph early this morning and lasting
into the late morning hours before weakening going into the
afternoon hours. The highest wind speeds are expected to be along
the ridge tops.

By Sunday heights aloft continue to increase as the ridge moves
farther east and over the Desert SW. This will cause temperatures
across the lower desert to climb back into the mid 90s, and lower
80s in the higher terrain areas. However, a short wave trough
looks to progress across northwest Mexico and southern Arizona on
Sunday. Along with this shortwave PWAT anomalies during this time
are expected to rise to over 200% of normal in the eastern portion
of the higher terrain. The latest NBM has lower PoP chances down
from 30-40% to now around a 15-20% chance, with QPF totals near
0.01". Most of the forecasted QPF is further to the east, into
Eastern Arizona into Western New Mexico.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...

By Monday any moisture introduced to the region Sunday will begin
to trend back towards normal, but looks to remain slightly above
normal, generally around 100-130% of normal. This lingering
moisture will help facilitate some cloud coverage over the region
throughout the week. Temperatures throughout the week will be in
the mid to upper 90s across the lower deserts. These temperatures
are in response to ridging over the region throughout most of the
workweek. By late into the week into the weekend models are
hinting at another troughing feature approaching the region, which
may help lower temperatures back towards normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1755Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Only minor aviation weather concerns will exist through the TAF
period under increasing high clouds later this afternoon. Winds
will generally follow their familiar diurnal patterns but with a
more northerly component than what is typical. Winds should switch
out of a NE`rly direction earlier than usual this evening, with
moderate confidence in gusts to around 20 kts for a period
overnight at KSDL and KDVT. Due to local terrain affects, KPHX may
switch around to the southwest for a period Saturday morning
before mixing occurs mid morning. Once mixing commences, a period
with E/NE`rly gusts into the teens is expected to develop across
the terminals and then subside by Saturday afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The main aviation concern will continue to be gusty northerly
winds into the afternoon. Gusts upwards of 30-50 kts have been
observed at KBLH for a few hours this morning and will continue
for the next couple hours, with a few localized channels of
blowing dust across the area. At KIPL, peak gusts out of the N/NNE
between 20-25 kt will be more common. Confidence in visibility
reductions is still too low to include in the TAF due to the
localized nature of the blowing dust channels, but it cannot be
ruled out until gusts begin to relax this afternoon. Winds will
then back out of the northwest this evening. FEW-SCT high clouds
will prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather returns to the region with temperatures hovering
slightly above normal through today. Minimum humidity levels are
expected to fall closer to 10% today. Tonight overnight recoveries
will deteriorate into a poor to fair 20-50% range. Enhanced wind
gusts 30-40 mph will be possible in western districts early to
late this morning creating elevated fire weather conditions, while
other areas will only see modest afternoon breeziness. Lighter
winds and temperatures rising to well above normal are then
anticipated for the weekend. Moisture is expected to briefly
increase across eastern Arizona this weekend potentially bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain on
Sunday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Wind Advisory until noon MST today for AZZ530.

CA...Wind Advisory until noon PDT today for CAZ569-570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Kuhlman