350
FXUS65 KPSR 240940
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
240 AM MST Fri Apr 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil weather conditions and slightly above normal
  temperatures today will transition into a cool down over the
  weekend as a dry weather system brings breezy to windy
  conditions to the region.

- Near normal temperatures will be common much of next week
  despite another potential weather system during the latter half
  of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry westerly zonal flow is still in place across the Desert
Southwest while two weak disturbances are positioned west of
California. The first one is forecast to dissipate as it moves
onshore into central California later today, while the next one
begins to strengthen tonight into Saturday as it remains offshore.
For today, tranquil weather conditions will continue to prevail,
but we will get a boost in temperatures with highs reaching the 90
degree mark for a good portion of the lower deserts.

Westerly flow will also begin to increase later today likely
leading to some breezy to locally windy conditions for portions of
southeast California starting this evening. These conditions will
persist into Saturday with gusty winds in some areas, but winds
are likely to be held back some due to fairly cloudy skies through
at least early Saturday afternoon. The strongest low level winds
will kick in by early Saturday evening as a cold front associated
with the next Pacific disturbance begins to move through the
region. Advisory level winds will become possible across southeast
California Saturday evening, while gusts elsewhere should mostly
stay under 25 mph. The main energy from the disturbance is
forecast to move through southern California Saturday evening and
then across the northern half of Arizona Saturday night. Limited
system moisture will at most lead to some isolated to scattered
light showers across the high terrain north of the Phoenix area
with very little rainfall expected.

Temperatures will cool off over the weekend with highs falling
back mostly into the mid 80s on Saturday with the help of the
clouds and then only in the upper 70s on Sunday behind the cold
front. Sunday is expected to be a very pleasant day with sunny
skies and some modest breeziness with gusts up to 20-25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...
Model uncertainty becomes an issue for later next week as yet
another Pacific weather system begins to take shape well west of
California early in the week. For our region, the exiting of the
weekend system on Sunday will leave behind a drier air mass which
will slowly modify and warm Monday into Tuesday. Both days should
still bring nice weather and clear to mostly clear skies, but
high temperatures are forecast to warm back to near 85 degrees on
Monday and then 90 degrees Tuesday.

Over the past couple of model runs, guidance has put a little
more doubt in the timing of the Pacific system for later next
week. Models still mostly favor the system to begin approaching
the region by next Tuesday/Wednesday, but it may become more cut
off from the main flow which could delay the system to more like
Thursday or even as late as Friday. The average of the ensembles
generally indicate the system moving through our region later
Wednesday into early Thursday, but some members hold off until
late Thursday/early Friday. Early indications are for a bit better
moisture this time around which should bring at least minimal
chances for showers whenever the main shortwave moves through the
area. The latest NBM/WPC PoPs give us 15-20% chances across the
lower deserts to as high as 20-30% in the high terrain for the
latter half of Wednesday into Thursday morning. The timing
uncertainty could easily change this timeframe as well as any
significant changes in forecast moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0500Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No significant weather concerns will exist through Friday evening
under occasional passing cirrus decks. Confidence is very good that
winds will behave similarly to the past 24 hours with westerly winds
lingering longer into the overnight versus usual before
transitioning to east. Modest wind gusts 15-20kt are likely Friday
afternoon after directions shift to west by late morning/early
afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Increasingly gusty winds late Friday afternoon/evening will be the
main weather issue under occasional high cirrus decks. Confidence
remains good that winds will back from northerly evening/overnight
to southwest Friday afternoon. Gusts 20-25kt will become common
across the region Friday late afternoon with KIPL increasing closer
to 30kt beyond early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions with relatively light winds are expected for much
of today before breezy conditions develop tonight and become
locally windy on Saturday. Wind gusts Saturday will commonly reach
20-25 mph in many locations to as high as 30-40 mph across
portions of southeast California. Expect MinRHs today again
between 10-15%  before increasing to 15-20% Saturday. Overnight
recoveries will improve over the next couple of days, rising from
25-40% to 40-60% by Saturday night. A mostly dry weather system
passing through the region Saturday night may bring some high
terrain showers, but CWR is less than 10%. Seasonably breezy
afternoon winds and drying conditions are forecast for early next
week, but winds should fall short of creating widespread elevated
fire weather concerns.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM..Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman/Benedict