Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 061733
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92):
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that showers and
thunderstorms are becoming better organized while surface pressures
are gradually falling. If these trends continue, advisories will
likely be issued on this system later today or tonight while it
moves slowly eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds
and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days.
The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward
the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It is still too
early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but
interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely
monitor the progress of this system. The NOAA Gulfstream jet is en
route to sample the environment over the Gulf this afternoon and Air
Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate
the system tomorrow.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Summary for Tropical Depression Nine (AT4/AL092026)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 the center of Nine was located near 22.1, -95.6 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Nine Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026000 WTNT34 KNHC 062038 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 95.6W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula and the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 95.6 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h) and an east to east-northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days. By Friday, a turn to the northeast is anticipated. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches through Thursday across coastal portions of the Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of Campeche and western Yucatan. From Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2026000 WTNT24 KNHC 062038 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2026 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 95.6W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 95.6W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 95.8W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.1N 95.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.6N 93.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.1N 91.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.2N 90.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.9N 88.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.5N 88.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 34.0N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 38.9N 86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 95.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026000 WTNT44 KNHC 062039 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of America has recently developed a closed circulation, though it might still be elongated. Associated showers and thunderstorms have also become better organized, and this system now meets the criteria to be a tropical depression, the ninth one of the season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB. The depression has barely moved over the past 6 to 12 hours, with the initial motion estimated to be 120/1 kt. The cyclone is expected to track slowly eastward or east-northeastward during the next couple of days while it moves in the flow near the base of a broad deep-layer trough, and could bring gusty winds and heavy rains to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. By Friday, a sharp turn to the northeast is expected when a shortwave trough forms over Texas and a ridge strengthens over the western Atlantic. This pattern change should cause the system to accelerate toward the northern Gulf Coast on Friday and into early Saturday. The NHC track forecast lies near the fast side of the guidance, in best agreement with the GDMI and ECAI aids. It should be noted that there is significant uncertainty in where the system makes the northeast turn and how fast it moves toward the coast. It appears that the stronger the system gets, the faster it will move toward the coast given the strength of the deep-layer flow. The NOAA G-IV jet is currently sampling the environment and special upper-air soundings are being deployed over the south-central U.S. The assimilation of these data into the dynamical models should improve their representation of the current environmental conditions, ideally yielding more reliable track and intensity guidance. The environmental conditions appear generally conducive for strengthening over the next few days, and given that the storm appears compact, it will likely steadily strengthen during that time. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. Based on the environmental conditions and the model guidance, the cyclone will likely peak in strength before reaching the coast. Although not seen in the forecast, some weakening seems likely when the storm nears the Gulf Coast due to an increase in vertical wind shear, but it is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall. This forecast is in fair agreement with the consensus aids, but it should be noted that there are skillful models that are higher than the current forecast. Although the storm is expected to be compact for the next few days, it will likely grow significantly in size, particularly on the eastern side, when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Therefore, based on the forecast uncertainty and expected larger size, users are urged not to focus on the forecast points and stay tuned to updates. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of dangerous wind and storm surge impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and watches could be required on Wednesday. Residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 2. The system will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. 3. Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico: The depression is expected to strengthen and could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.1N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 22.1N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 22.6N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 23.1N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 24.2N 90.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 25.9N 88.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 28.5N 88.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 34.0N 88.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/1800Z 38.9N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Depression Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2026 000
FONT14 KNHC 062038
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026
2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
GFAM 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17)
GFAM 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
GFAM 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 14(27) X(27)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) X(23)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7)
BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) X(28)
WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8)
WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 21(31) X(31)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
GFAM 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 14(57) X(57)
GFAM 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) X(27)
GFAM 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) 1(38)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 25(34) 1(35)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 1(29)
STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10)
STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 13(32) 1(33)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
GFAM 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 54(55) 4(59) X(59)
GFAM 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 4(34) X(34)
GFAM 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 1(22)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 1(16)
HOUMA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
GFAM 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) 1(18)
GFAM 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
GFAM 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
GFAM 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression Nine Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2026 21:22:29 GMT