Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210527
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Fausto, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of Baja California.
Eastern and Central East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
Mexico over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a
tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the
eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Southwest of Hawaii:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands remain disorganized.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves generally westward during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Summary for Hurricane Fausto (EP1/EP062026)
...FAUSTO BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 the center of Fausto was located near 14.7, -117.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Fausto Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026000 WTPZ31 KNHC 210243 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Fausto Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ...FAUSTO BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 117.3W ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fausto was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 117.3 West. Fausto is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northwestward motion, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by Wednesday is expected. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, with Fausto forecast to near major hurricane intensity by Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday, and persist for a couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
Hurricane Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026000 WTPZ21 KNHC 210243 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026 0300 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 117.3W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 170SE 160SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 117.3W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 117.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 118.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 160SE 140SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.2N 119.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.7N 121.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.1N 123.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 125.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.9N 127.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.8N 133.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.7N 138.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 117.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
Hurricane Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026305 WTPZ41 KNHC 210244 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto has continued to become better organized during the past several hours. Although some residual northerly shear remains evident, satellite imagery shows that the low- and mid-level circulations have become much better aligned than they were yesterday. Recent microwave and scatterometer data also support the improved structure, and the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB indicate that Fausto has reached hurricane intensity. Based on these data and the improving satellite presentation, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt, making Fausto the first hurricane of the 2026 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial motion is estimated to be 315/8 kt. A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two as the cyclone moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, high pressure is forecast to build north of Fausto, causing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and gradually accelerate. Track guidance remains tightly clustered through about 72 h. Thereafter, a gradual increase in cross-track spread develops, with the GFS and the multi-model consensus (HCCA) on the right side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF and GDMI on the left, or south, side. The updated NHC forecast is very close to the previous advisory and reflects a blend of the HCCA and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Fausto is expected to move into an environment of lower vertical wind shear while remaining over warm waters and within a moist air mass during the next couple of days. These conditions should support steady to rapid strengthening, although some lingering northwesterly shear could initially temper the rate of intensification. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Fausto to approach major hurricane intensity in about 48 h and remains near the middle of the guidance envelope through this time. A gradual weakening trend is expected thereafter as the cyclone moves over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 14.7N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 15.5N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 16.2N 119.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 16.7N 121.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 17.1N 123.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 17.5N 125.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 17.9N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 18.8N 133.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 19.7N 138.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
Hurricane Fausto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026 011
FOPZ11 KNHC 210243
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
0300 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 120W 34 36 54(90) X(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
15N 120W 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
15N 120W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 1(25) X(25)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 40(56) 1(57)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 27(69)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 20(34)
20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37)
20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13)
20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
Hurricane Fausto Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2026 03:27:42 GMT