Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031726
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 3 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Amanda, located well southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America and southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of this system thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week
while it moves slowly northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Offshore Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern and
southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions could
allow for some gradual development of this system thereafter while
it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
&&
Public advisories on Tropical Storm Amanda are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Amanda are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Summary for Tropical Storm Amanda (EP1/EP012026)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2026 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 the center of Amanda was located near 10.6, -128.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Amanda Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031453 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Amanda Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012026 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2026 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 128.2W ABOUT 1475 MI...2375 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 128.2 West. Amanda is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west and west-southwest at a slower forward motion is forecast this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. A weakening trend is forecast later this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Adams
Tropical Storm Amanda Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 03 2026000 WTPZ21 KNHC 031451 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026 1500 UTC WED JUN 03 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 128.2W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 128.2W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 127.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 11.2N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 12.1N 130.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 12.9N 131.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.5N 132.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.6N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.4N 134.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 12.9N 134.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 12.2N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 128.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/ADAMS
Tropical Storm Amanda Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026000 WTPZ41 KNHC 031454 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012026 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026 Deep convection has been increasing near and to the west of the low-level center of the system over the past 6-12 hours. Objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are around 35 kt. Using these estimates and the latest satellite trends, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Amanda with the initial intensity set to 35 kt. Amanda is moving a little faster to the northwest with an initial motion of 305/7 kt. The system is flanked by a mid-level ridge to the northeast and an upper-level low to the northwest, supporting a northwestward to west-northwestward motion through Friday. A turn toward the west then west-southwest with a slower forward motion is expected by this weekend as the ridge strengthens. The official forecast is similar to the previous in the short term, but has been nudged slightly farther south from the previous beyond Day 3, lying between the Google DeepMind and various consensus aids. The storm has shown increasing organized convection this morning, and is embedded within a sufficiently saturated low- and mid-level environment. All model guidance supports steady strengthening over the next 36 h or so. It is noted that GFS and EC SHIPS RI model guidance are showing a 20 to 30 percent chance of rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 h. The official NHC forecast maintains a peak intensity of 55 kt, which lies near the higher end of the model guidance. After 36-48 h, Amanda will move into a less-favorable environment with increasing shear and a drier mid-level airmass, supporting steady weakening through this weekend. Towards the end of the forecast period, the system will begin to struggle to produce convection. The official forecast now has the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low at Day 5, although some models suggest this could occur sooner than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 10.6N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 11.2N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 12.1N 130.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 12.9N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 13.5N 132.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 13.6N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 13.4N 134.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 12.9N 134.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 12.2N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly/Adams
Tropical Storm Amanda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 03 2026 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 031453
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
1500 UTC WED JUN 03 2026
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
10N 130W 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
15N 130W 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16)
10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 3(24) 1(25)
15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/ADAMS
Tropical Storm Amanda Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2026 15:21:54 GMT