Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101735
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles southwest of Punta
Baja, Mexico, and on Hurricane Simon, located about one hundred
miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south or southwest of
the coast of Mexico by early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter half
of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Summary for Tropical Storm Rachel (EP3/EP182026)
...RACHEL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 the center of Rachel was located near 27.0, -118.3 with movement NNE at 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Rachel Public Advisory Number 55
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026000 WTPZ33 KNHC 102048 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026 ...RACHEL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 118.3W ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California and Baja California Sur, from Punta Eugenia northward to the U.S./Mexico Border * East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to the San Diego/Orange County Line * East coast of Baja California, from Bahia De Los Angeles northward to Isla San Luis * Northwest Mexico from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 118.3 West. Rachel is moving toward the north-northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h). A northeastward to north-northeastward motion with a further increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to approach northern Baja California today and move onshore tonight. Rachel's post-tropical remnants will then move across the southwestern United States on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, especially after Rachel moves inland over Baja California. Rachel is likely to become post-tropical by Sunday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of the Baja California Peninsula within the Tropical Storm Warning area this evening and continue into Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are also possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in extreme Southern California, eastern Baja California, and portions of northwest Mexico beginning tonight or early Sunday. Strong gusty winds associated with the system are expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, tonight through early next week. RAINFALL: Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend. Rachel and its associated moisture will also bring rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum amounts locally up to 5 inches in portions of the Southwest United States this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for significant flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ero. SURF: Waves generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California today. These waves, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves coincide with the high tides and water levels that are already running well above predicted levels. Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected, with hazardous coastal conditions continuing into early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pierce/Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Rachel Forecast Advisory Number 55
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026648 WTPZ23 KNHC 102047 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026 2100 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 118.3W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 180SE 180SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 118.3W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 118.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 30.4N 116.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 120SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 36.3N 114.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 118.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 11/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PIERCE/CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Rachel Forecast Discussion Number 55
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026000 WTPZ43 KNHC 102049 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Rachel continues to trend toward transitioning to a post-tropical storm. Convection remains shallow and has become further sheared well northeast of the center due to strong southwesterly shear. A 1731 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed an asymmetric system with peak winds of 48 kt located just west of the center. Based on this data, the initial intensity was raised to 55 kt. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northeast, or 025/26 kt. A turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is anticipated, as noted in the previous advisory. This change in the steering flow is due to the storm's interaction with a mid-level cut-off low located to its northwest. The updated NHC track forecast was nudged eastward initially, but otherwise closely mirrors the previous track and aligns with the latest HCCA aid. Rachel has undergone slight intensification since the previous advisory, likely due to its interaction with an upper-level trough. The storm is forecast to degrade further given its hostile environment, specifically because of strong southwesterly shear. Rachel is anticipated to move inland just after 12 h and become post-tropical by 24 h. The new intensity forecast is largely unchanged. Key Messages: 1. Rachel is expected to make landfall along the coast of northern Baja California at tropical storm strength tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Baja California and northern Baja California Sur, Mexico, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in extreme Southern California, eastern Baja California, and portions of northwestern Mexico where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. 2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are expected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, tonight and Sunday. 3. Rachel and its moisture will continue to spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential for significant flash and urban flooding this weekend. 4. Waves generated by Rachel, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California. Major coastal flooding has already been occurring in some areas, with observed water levels running as much as 1.5 feet above predictions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves associated with Rachel coincide with high tides and already elevated water levels. Hazardous coastal conditions are expected to continue into early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 27.0N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 30.4N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 36.3N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pierce/Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Rachel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 55
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026 000
FOPZ13 KNHC 102048
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 55
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
2100 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAN DIEGO CA 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
YUMA AZ 34 X 42(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
TIJUANA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ENSENADA 34 12 36(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
IS GUADALUPE 34 52 X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
P PENASCO 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
25N 120W 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Rachel Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2026 21:22:06 GMT
Local Statement for San Diego, CA
Issued at 200 PM PDT
Summary for Hurricane Simon (EP5/EP202026)
...CATEGORY 4 SIMON MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TONIGHT... As of 3:00 PM CST Sat Oct 10 the center of Simon was located near 17.6, -104.8 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 932 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
Hurricane Simon Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Oct 10 2026000 WTPZ35 KNHC 102057 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Simon Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 300 PM CST Sat Oct 10 2026 ...CATEGORY 4 SIMON MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 104.8W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case starting this afternoon. Additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Simon was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 104.8 West. Simon has resumed a slow motion toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to be near or just inland of the west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday before moving further inland on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are anticipated tonight, but Simon is still forecast to approach the coast of west-central Mexico as a major hurricane on Sunday. Rapid weakening could occur if the core of Simon moves fully onshore by Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure measured by Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 932 mb (27.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the southern part of the Hurricane Warning area beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected as soon as later this afternoon, with these winds spreading northward thereafter. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning later this afternoon. RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Sunday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Hurricane Simon Forecast Advisory Number 14
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026000 WTPZ25 KNHC 102055 TCMEP5 HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026 2100 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 104.8W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 104.8W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 18.3N 104.9W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.4N 105.1W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.8N 105.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.9N 105.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.8N 105.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 104.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 11/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Simon Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Oct 10 2026328 WTPZ45 KNHC 102059 TCDEP5 Hurricane Simon Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 300 PM CST Sat Oct 10 2026 Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Simon this afternoon, finding that the hurricane is indeed a Category 4 storm. The minimum pressure is estimated to be down to 932 mb, and the peak 700 mb flight level winds were 134 kt in the eastern quadrant of the hurricane. While a standard 0.9 reduction would typically support a 10 meter sustained wind of 120-125 kt, the entire wind field of Simon was not fully sampled. In addition, there was an earlier partial Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) RCM-1 pass which had a peak wind of 138 kt. Satellite intensity estimates, which have been lagging behind the estimated intensity of Simon, have also risen somewhat today. Taking all these data points together, the initial intensity is held at 130 kt this advisory. The aircraft also reported concentric eyewalls, with the inner eyewall 12 n mi and outer wall at 36 n mi. Some concentric bands were also picked up by a recent AMSR-3 microwave pass. After slowing down to a crawl earlier, aircraft fixes indicate that Simon starting to move due north again, with an estimated motion at 360/4 kt. As previously discussed, the hurricane is being primarily steered by a weak mid-level ridge to the east, providing deep-layer southerly flow. A subtle narrow mid-level ridge to the northwest is also imparting a slight amount of northerly flow. Once again, the track guidance this afternoon has made a slower adjustment. In addition, there is a bit of an eastward shift in the guidance envelope. One notable change from this morning, now all the hurricane-regional model runs (HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A, HAFS-B) all show Simon making landfall in Jalisco in 24-36 h. In addition, both the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) and its upgraded Weather Next model (WN3I) also nudged their tracks eastward. Thus, the NHC track forecast has shifted a bit to the east, but still lies on the eastern end of the guidance. Part of the reason for favoring the eastern edge of the guidance is that there is a pretty well-known bias that tropical cyclones in this area tend to track east of the forecast track due to interaction with the high topography of coastal Mexico. As mentioned this morning, the future intensity forecast of Simon is heavily influenced by Simon's ultimate track. Because large-scale environmental conditions remain favorable, Simon's short-term intensity forecast will likely be controlled by inner-core fluctuations, like eyewall replacement cycles. This is pertinent given the concentric eyewalls noted by the aircraft mission. However, as Simon nears the Mexican coast, the high topography will interact with the hurricane's outer circulation, and spot soundings in the HAFS-A/B runs show evidence of downslope subsidence occurring as Simon nears landfall. This effect will both cause the hurricane's wind field to shrink in size, and will likely result in weakening even before the hurricane makes landfall in Mexico. Weakening is expected to begin between 12-24 h, with more substantial weakening occurring when Simon moves fully onshore. Once again, this intensity forecast is quite uncertain. If Simon remains offshore, like the ECMWF and a decent chunk of GDM ensemble members show, it may remain much stronger than the latest NHC intensity forecast. The latest forecast is a bit lower than the prior one, with a bit more confidence that Simon will move inland, though the latest forecast still shows Simon dissipating over Mexico after 60 h. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed this afternoon. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 17.6N 104.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 18.3N 104.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 19.4N 105.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 20.8N 105.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1800Z 21.9N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 13/0600Z 22.8N 105.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Hurricane Simon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026 000
FOPZ15 KNHC 102058
PWSEP5
HURRICANE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
2100 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 12(12) 12(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 30(30) 19(49) 3(52) X(52) X(52)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
P VALLARTA 34 X 9( 9) 48(57) 5(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63)
P VALLARTA 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 29 55(84) 5(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 2 47(49) 6(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 26(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
MANZANILLO 34 60 23(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
MANZANILLO 50 7 28(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
MANZANILLO 64 1 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Simon Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2026 21:27:43 GMT