RSS Tropical Cyclone Advisories from NHC

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


986
ABPZ20 KNHC 170518
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Lane, located over the far southwestern portion
of the basin.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the next several days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Hurricane Lane (EP4/EP142018)

...LANE BECOMES THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE 2018 PACIFIC SEASON... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY SATURDAY...
 As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 16
 the center of Lane was located near 11.2, -129.8
 with movement WNW at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 992 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Lane Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018  

217 
WTPZ34 KNHC 170242
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018

...LANE BECOMES THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE 2018 PACIFIC SEASON...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 129.8W
ABOUT 1540 MI...2475 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1780 MI...2865 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 129.8 West. Lane is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion between
west-northwest and west is expected during the next few days, and
Lane is forecast to cross over into the central Pacific basin on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected for the next
36 to 48 hours, and Lane is forecast to become a major hurricane
by Saturday. Little change in strength is expected on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hurricane Lane Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018  

216 
WTPZ24 KNHC 170242
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142018
0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 129.8W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  75SE  45SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 129.8W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 129.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.5N 131.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.0N 134.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.5N 137.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.4N 145.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 15.2N 149.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 15.6N 153.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 129.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018  

827 
WTPZ44 KNHC 170243
TCDEP4

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Visible, infrared, and microwave satellite imagery indicate that
Lane's overall cloud pattern has continued to improve, with several
spiral bands and a more symmetrical outflow pattern having
developed. Although the inner-core convection has deteriorated
somewhat until just recently due to the entrainment of dry air,
microwave images indicate that a well-defined inner-core and
low-level eye feature has formed. Satellite intensity estimates at
0000 UTC ranged form T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB to 55 kt and 59 kt
from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively, which supported an
intensity of 60 kt at that time. Since then, however, a nearly
closed ring of cold-topped convection has developed near the center,
so the intensity is set at 65 kt at the advisory time.

Lanes has made a sharp jog toward the west-northwest during the past
6 hours, but this believed to be a short-term wobble due to the
convection having recently wrapped around the north side of the
low-level center. A return to a general westward motion of 280/13 kt
is expected to resume shortly. The latest model guidance remains in
good agreement on Lane continuing move between westward and
west-northwestward direction for the next 3-4 days, followed by a
turn back toward the west on day 5 as the stout subtropical ridge to
the north strengthens to the east and northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands and as a broad upper-level trough north of Hawaii gradually
lifts out toward the northeast. The new NHC forecast track has been
shifted a little to the right or north of the previous advisory
track, primarily due to the more northward initial position, and
closely follows the HCCA and TVCN/TVCE track consensus models.

Now that a small well-defined inner core and partial eye feature
have developed with a radius of maximum winds of 15-20 nmi, Lane is
poised to rapidly intensity shortly, and sustain that trend for the
next 36 hour so owing to the very low vertical-wind-shear and
warm-SST regime that the cyclone will be moving through. Although
brief intrusions of dry air may result in some flirtations in the
intensity, the general trend should be for Lane to strengthen at a
rate of at least 30 kt per 24 hours for the next 36-48 hours. After
that, the intensity will be modulated by inner-core/eyewall
fluctuations that can not be forecast accurately that far in
advance. By days 4 and 5, however, a slow weakening trend is
expected due to a gradual increase in southwesterly vertical wind
shear. Overall, though, the new NHC intensity forecast is a little
above the previous intensity forecast, and is above all of the
intensity guidance. A good analog that was used for Lane's forecast
was recent Hurricane Hector, which exhibited similar inner-core and
outflow characteristics, and moved through similar environmental and
oceanic conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 11.2N 129.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 11.5N 131.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 12.0N 134.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 12.5N 137.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 14.4N 145.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 15.2N 149.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 15.6N 153.7W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hurricane Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018


234 
FOPZ14 KNHC 170242
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142018               
0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65   
KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                            
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 135W       34  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
15N 135W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
10N 140W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  35(38)   9(47)   1(48)   X(48)
15N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)
15N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
10N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  69(70)  11(81)   X(81)
15N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  38(38)  14(52)   X(52)
15N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)  11(34)   X(34)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
10N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  49(50)  19(69)
15N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  16(38)
15N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  10(21)
 
20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
20N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
20N 151W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  32(41)
BUOY 51004     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)
BUOY 51004     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
20N 154W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
20N 154W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
15N 155W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  30(31)
15N 155W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
15N 155W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)
18N 156W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
18N 156W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)
SOUTH POINT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
SOUTH POINT    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
BUOY 51002     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Hurricane Lane Graphics


Hurricane Lane 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 02:45:29 GMT

Hurricane Lane 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 03:28:18 GMT