Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302317
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Karina, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located well
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well offshore of southwestern Mexico remain
disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next couple of days while the system continues to move
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Central Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well south or southwest of the
Hawaiian Islands in the next couple of days. Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while it moves slowly westward
across the central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Summary for Hurricane Karina (EP1/EP112026)
...KARINA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 the center of Karina was located near 17.2, -123.4 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
Hurricane Karina Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 500 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026000 WTPZ31 KNHC 302338 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Karina Special Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026 500 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 ...KARINA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 123.4W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 123.4 West. Karina is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Karina is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening will be possible over the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Adams
Hurricane Karina Forecast Advisory Number 14
Issued at 0000 UTC MON AUG 31 2026000 WTPZ21 KNHC 302337 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KARINA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026 0000 UTC MON AUG 31 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 123.4W AT 31/0000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 5NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 180SE 90SW 160NW. 4 M SEAS....330NE 300SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 123.4W AT 31/0000Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 122.5W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.1N 124.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.3N 125.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.6N 127.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.0N 129.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.6N 131.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.0N 132.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 19.9N 136.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.7N 139.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 123.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ADAMS
Hurricane Karina Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 500 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026000 WTPZ41 KNHC 302340 TCDEP1 Hurricane Karina Special Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026 500 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 The satellite presentation of Karina has improved immensely over the past several hours. Very cold cloud top temperatures of -70 to -75 C now completely surround a warm eye, with temperatures near 0 to -5 C. An earlier GPM GMI microwave pass also revealed a compact and well-established eye and pronounced curved banding around the center. Karina is moving over very warm sea surface temperatures near 29 C and remains in an environment highly conducive to further intensification. Objective intensity estimates have also increased rapidly over the past several hours, ranging from 88-109 kt. Based on the satellite presentation, microwave imagery, environmental conditions and objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at 110 kt, making Karina a major hurricane. The intensity forecast has been increased from the previous advisory. There were no changes made to the track or wind radii forecasts. A new forecast will be issued at 0300 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0000Z 17.2N 123.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 17.1N 124.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 17.3N 125.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 17.6N 127.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 18.0N 129.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 18.6N 131.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 19.0N 132.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 19.9N 136.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 20.7N 139.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Adams
Hurricane Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 0000 UTC MON AUG 31 2026 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 302338
PWSEP1
HURRICANE KARINA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0000 UTC MON AUG 31 2026
AT 0000Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 1(26) X(26)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 53(76) 2(78)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 42(48) 2(50)
20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 2(29)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 31(38)
20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
$$
FORECASTER ADAMS
Hurricane Karina Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2026 23:41:27 GMT