RSS Tropical Cyclone Advisories from NHC

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211111
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 21 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vicente, located about 100 miles south-southeast of Puerto
Angel, Mexico, and on Hurricane Willa, located a couple of hundred
miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)

...TINY VICENTE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 21
 the center of Vicente was located near 14.5, -96.0
 with movement WSW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 210845
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...TINY VICENTE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 96.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 96.0 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn back
toward the west is expected by this afternoon or evening, followed
by a gradual turn toward the northwest on Monday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Vicente is expected to remain just offshore or
near the southern coast of Mexico through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, followed by gradual weakening on Monday and Tuesday.

Vicente is a small tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds
only extending outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Between Monday and Wednesday, Vicente or its remnants
is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to
10 inches along the coast of southwestern Mexico. This rainfall
could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within
mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 210844
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018
0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  96.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  20SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  96.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  95.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.3N  97.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.4N  99.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 100.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.6N 102.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.2N 104.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N  96.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 210857
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Vicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone as evidenced by ASCAT passes
around 03Z-04Z, which showed a very small but well-defined
circulation, with peak wind speed values of 38 kt. Those peak winds
were likely undersampled given the small radius of maximum winds of
only 10-15 nmi. Based on Vicente's small size and the ASCAT wind
data, the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which
above all of the other the intensity estimates, and lies closest to
the UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 43 kt. Little change in intensity is
forecast due to moderate northerly shear expected to affect the
cyclone throughout the forecast period, along with Vicente's
proximity to land and occasional dry intrusions. Rapid weakening
and dissipation are expected after landfall due to the
mountainous terrain of Mexico.

The initial motion is now west-southwestward or 255/08 kt. Vicente
is expected to move westward later today and then turn toward the
west-northwest  on Monday and northwest on Tuesday when the cyclone
will come under the influence of the Hurricane Willa's larger
circulation.  Landfall is expected to occur along the southwestern
coast of mainland Mexico on Wednesday. The latest NHC model guidance
is tightly packed about the previous advisory track, and only minor
forward speed changes were required, except for a more rightward
shift in the track at 72 hours resulting in landfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 14.5N  96.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 14.3N  97.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 14.4N  99.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 15.2N 100.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 16.6N 102.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 19.2N 104.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND SWRN MEXICO
 96H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 210845
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018               
0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 105W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   X(21)   X(21)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  14(26)   X(26)   X(26)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   8(22)   X(22)   X(22)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 100W       34  X  13(13)  42(55)   1(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)
15N 100W       50  X   1( 1)  12(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
15N 100W       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics


Tropical Storm Vicente 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 08:59:15 GMT

Tropical Storm Vicente 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 09:21:54 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Willa (EP4/EP242018)

...WILLA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY MORNING...
 As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Oct 21
 the center of Willa was located near 16.2, -106.5
 with movement NW at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 984 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Willa Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 210841
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...WILLA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 106.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland
Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 106.5 West. Willa is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through early Sunday.  A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is expected by late Sunday and Monday.
Willa is expected to accelerate toward the northeast and approach
the coast of west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Willa is expected to become a major hurricane by
Monday morning.

Willa is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Willa should begin to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico by Monday.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane Willa Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 210840
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018
0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 106.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 106.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.8N 107.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.6N 107.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.7N 107.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.8N 107.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.3N 106.1W...NR WEST-CNTRL COAST OF MEXICO
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 26.9N 101.2W...INLAND OVER NCNTRL MEXICO
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 106.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 210844
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Willa has continued to rapidly intensify based on a well-defined CDO
with an intermittent pinhole eye evident in high-resolution GOES-16
infrared (IR) satellite imagery. Upper-level outflow has become well
established in all quadrants. The intensity is difficult to
ascertain since satellite intensity estimates vary widely based on
the scene type used and also the small size of the hurricane. TAFB
and SAB both provided an estimate of T4.0/65 kt, whereas UW-CIMSS
ADT and SATCON were 67 kt and 56 kt, respectively. In contrast, NHC
objective T-numbers are T5.0/90 kt using an embedded center and as
high as T6.0/115 kt using a pinhole eye. Given that the eye has not
been maintained in IR imagery, the advisory intensity of 75 kt lies
between the subjective TAFB/SAB estimate and lower NHC objective
estimate.

Willa is moving at 315/06 kt. There is no significant change to the
previous forecast track reasoning. Willa is forecast to continue
moving northwestward for the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn
toward the north on Monday, with a motion toward the northeast
expected on Tuesday as the hurricane gradually rounds the western
periphery of the deep-layer ridge. By late Tuesday, Willa is
forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough
that will be approaching Baja California, resulting in landfall
along the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday. The latest 00Z
model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track,
and only minor forward speed adjustments were required. A 96-h
position has been provided only for continuity purposes, and Willa
will likely have dissipated over the Mexican mountains by then.

Willa's small inner-core wind field along with ideal environmental
conditions consisting of low shear, high mid-level moisture, and
warm SSTs of 28 deg C should allow the hurricane to continue to
rapidly intensify for the next 24-36 hours, followed by a leveling
off in the intensity by early Tuesday due to expected cold upwelling
beneath the slow-moving hurricane.  In 60-72 hours, increasing
southwesterly shear ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough is
expected to induce steady weakening until landfall occurs. Rapid
dissipation over the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico will
occur after landfall. The official intensity forecast is a tad
above the consensus models HCCA and FSSE, and is little below the
robust Navy COAMPS-TC model forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 16.2N 106.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 16.8N 107.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 17.6N 107.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 18.7N 107.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 19.8N 107.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 22.3N 106.1W   90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR WNCTRL MEXICO
 96H  25/0600Z 26.9N 101.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND NCNTRL MEXICO
120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane Willa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018


000
FOPZ14 KNHC 210841
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE WILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018               
0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  14(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  11(24)   X(24)
CULIACAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
CULIACAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)  24(29)  55(84)   2(86)   X(86)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  49(54)   4(58)   X(58)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  32(33)   2(35)   X(35)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  41(43)  20(63)   X(63)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  13(28)   X(28)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)  45(50)  13(63)   X(63)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   7(29)   X(29)
SAN BLAS       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)  31(39)   6(45)   X(45)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   2(14)   X(14)
P VALLARTA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
15N 105W       34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)  13(20)   3(23)   X(23)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)  12(22)   1(23)   X(23)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)  18(25)   9(34)   1(35)   X(35)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   4(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Hurricane Willa Graphics


Hurricane Willa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 08:59:32 GMT

Hurricane Willa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 09:28:04 GMT