Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
651
ABNT20 KNHC 171745
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Storm Gabrielle, located in the central Tropical
Atlantic.
East-Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, and any development of
this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15 to
20 mph across the eastern and central portion of the tropical
Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system will continue to
bring areas of heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of west Africa by
Friday. Some slow development of this system is possible as it
moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic this
weekend into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.
$$
Forecaster Lamers/Blake/Taylor
Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT2/AL072025)
...CENTER OF GABRIELLE RE-FORMS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 17 the center of Gabrielle was located near 19.4, -48.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025000 WTNT32 KNHC 172043 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025 ...CENTER OF GABRIELLE RE-FORMS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 48.0W ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 48.0 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a northwest or west-northwest motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but some gradual intensification is forecast over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center, primarily in the eastern semicircle of the storm. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Lamers/Blake
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2025755 WTNT22 KNHC 172042 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 48.0W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 100NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 48.0W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 47.5W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.6N 49.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.7N 51.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.7N 53.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.7N 57.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.2N 59.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 29.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 32.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 48.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LAMERS/BLAKE
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025000 WTNT42 KNHC 172044 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025 The biggest change with Gabrielle today has been that the center has re-formed farther to the north compared with the previous advisory, similar to earlier model forecasts. While satellite imagery continues to indicate an elongated circulation with multiple embedded swirls, it has become better defined than this morning, and we have continued to make the center position on the advisory a mean of those swirls. A second scatterometer pass that intersected the northern semicircle of the storm after the 15Z advisory did show a large area of 40-45 kt winds. Therefore, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 knots, even though the system does not appear appreciably more organized. The first part of the track forecast has been shifted to the north based on the recent center re-formation. Gabrielle is moving northwestward now, and a west-northwestward to northwestward track is anticipated for the next few days due to steering from the subtropical ridge. The fundamental forecast question for both track and intensity is related to the wind shear Gabrielle will experience and the structural change. Little intensity change is shown for the next couple of days while the storm remains in a high-shear but high SST/instability environment. There actually appears to be good consensus that the shear will relax after Friday, but there are significant model differences on how much. This leads to a considerable amount of track and intensity spread as the forecast progresses into the weekend. Generally the models that relax the shear more substantially, to around 10 knots or less, show more intensification and a track to the right of model consensus. Since the NHC intensity forecast is a bit above the model average (similar to the last prediction), we favor a track forecast to the right of the model blend, more consistent with the HCCA corrected consensus, Google Deep Mind ensemble, and ECMWF ensemble. Overall, forecast confidence remains relatively low. Based on the recent trends, this system should pass well east and north of the Windward and Leeward Islands, but interests in Bermuda should monitor forecasts during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 19.4N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 20.6N 49.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 21.7N 51.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 22.7N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 23.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 24.7N 57.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 26.2N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 29.0N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 32.0N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Lamers/Blake
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 000
FONT12 KNHC 172043
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 24(33)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
$$
FORECASTER LAMERS/BLAKE
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2025 20:49:36 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2025 21:21:31 GMT